The USDA maintained its forecast for 2025’-26 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand and Supply Estimates report, released July 11. The outlook for corn production is down but the forecast yield is unchanged.
The current 2025-’26 corn outlook is for smaller supplies, domestic use, and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 25 million bushels to 1.3 billion, reflecting an increase in exports that is partly offset by lower feed and residual use for 2024-’25.
Feed and residual use is revised down 75 million based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 grain stocks report. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 2.8 billion based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date and, if realized, would be record high.
Corn production for 2025-’26 is forecast down 115 million bushels on lower planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181 bushels per acre.
The USDA maintained its forecast that 5.5 bushels of corn will go to fuel ethanol production for 2025-’26. An estimated 5.5 billion bushels of corn also went to fuel ethanol production for 2024-‘25, up from 5.478 billion bushels for 2023-’24.
Total use is cut 50 million bushels with a reduction for feed and residual use based on lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 90 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.
The outlook for foreign corn production is raised reflecting area increases for Canada and Mexico. For 2024-’25, corn production is raised for Brazil and the Philippines with a partly offsetting decline for Mexico. Brazil corn yield expectations are boosted based on reported second crop harvest results to date for the center-west.
Major global trade changes for 2025-’26 include larger corn imports for Zimbabwe and Egypt by reductions for Canada and Mexico. For 2024-’25 corn exports are raised for the U.S. and Canada but lowered for Turkey. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025-’26 are cut, with reductions for China and India partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Corn stocks, at 272.1 million tons, are down 3.2 million.
